PEGFA Research Seminars 2023-24: Mehmet Ugur & Adeyemi Aderin

26th Oct 2023 5pm - 6:30pm

Campus

The Institute of Political Economy, Governance, Finance and Accountability invites you to its Research Seminar Series 2023-24.

Our second seminar will feature PEGFA experts  Prof. Mehmet Ugur and Dr Adeyemi Aderin.

QA044 5.00-6.30pm

Prof. Mehmet Ugur will be presenting "Innovation, markups and the labour market: Evidence on employment and labour share in oecd industries".

Please find the abstract here:

Empirical models of employment and labour share do not usually control for technological innovation and market power at the same time. The common practice is in contradiction with the first-order conditions from production functions with imperfect competition and constant or variable elasticity of substitution. In these settings, labour share or employment always falls in markups, whereas the effects of technological innovation depend on the elasticity of substitution. We test these predictions with EU-KLEMS data on 32 industries in 12 OECD countries observed from 1995-2019. We report the following findings: (i) market power always reduces employment and labour share and the magnitude of the adverse effect is relatively large; (ii) the effect of innovation is positive but small, indicating an elasticity of substitution smaller than one; and (iii) the interactive effect is negative, indicating that the job-creating effects of innovation is gradually reversed as market power increases. These findings remain robust across different innovation and markup measures and between different samples. Hence, we conclude that the main driver of the decline in employment and/or labour share is not technological innovation as such but the level of rents that innovating firms are able to extract.

Dr Adeyemi Aderin will be presenting "Modelling financial distress in the Nigerian banking sector".

Please find the abstract here:

The study explores the possibility of developing an adequate model for the prediction of financial distress in the Nigerian banking sector. The study utilises an inductive philosophical approach embed with an exploratory research strategy. The sample set is limited due to population constraints and consists of fourteen (14) banks segmented into two equal groups of seven (7) healthy and seven (7) distressed banks for five years (2004-2008). The analysis involves the use of the multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) in developing a concise model for the accurate prediction of financial distress among Nigerian listed banks. The study achieves its goal of model estimation by developing a concise model that can adequately predict financial distress among Nigerian banks. The model was able to accurately predict 91.4% of distress cases and also has high predictive ability for long range distress forecasts extending beyond five years. It is recommended that the relevant regulatory authorities should experiment this new model in testing the health status of banks at the end of every financial year in order to ascertain their true state of affairs. This will assist the relevant authorities in taking proactive measures to guide against any form of inherent anomalies which could snowball into disastrous outcomes.

The working paper can be found here.

Click here to join the seminar via Microsoft Teams.

We look forward to seeing you there!

Please find the entire programme for this year's Research Seminar Series here.

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Further details